This journal entry appears also on my Xanga blog at:
SadoMikeyismI see more liberal congressmonsters ho-humming about how bad a draft would be, but "it's only fair", it's "more democratic" than just letting hick kids volunteer for all the glory, and because "failure is not an option", even though "Iraq was a mistake." Now they point out the risks if North Korea or Iran becomes another regional conflict issue, however, the real risks aren't North Korea, or Iran. Those are more mere distractions from the real risk.
China has $500 billion in US dollars in its vaults, being used to back their own currency, the Yuan. Over the last year, a number of other countries have detached their shaky currencies from the dollar and changed backing to the Euro, encouraged by the Chinese and other anti-US forces at work on the international stage. This means that many billions of dollars flowed out of the reserve banks of developing nations as Euros flowed in.
This devalued the dollar by up to 40%. This is the real reason oil is so expensive. If you adjusted for these exchange rate changes, the price of oil would be no different than it was prior to the Iraq war. I was looking at the price of Iranian crude yesterday: $34.00 weighted average between light and heavy crudes from Iran. Adjusted for the change in exchange rates prior to the Iraq war, that is equal to a pre-war price of less than $20.00/bbl, or $0.50 per gallon.
Now China is talking about shifting their own currency backing to a "mixed basket" of currencies, and is planning on dumping $200-$300 billion in US cash on the world currency markets in the next year. This will drop the value of the dollar even more, raising gas prices likely to about $3.50-$4.00 per gallon, unless other nations get creative about taking dollars off the market. These prices are reflective of the inflation adjusted prices we paid for oil during the Iran hostage crisis in 1979. Some of you remember those days, of inflation, mile long gas lines, rationing, and Carter's failed assault in the Iranian desert.
It isn't about currency or oil. It is about war. Not war in Iraq, or Iran, or North Korea, it's about war in Taiwan. China is pissed at Taiwan and it's independence minded President. Encouraged by US sales of advanced weapons systems, Taiwan has been talking a tougher line about complete independence from China. Ticked off by US spy-plane flights offshore of Chinese military invasion exercises (you remember when our plane got forced down prior to 9-11), the Chinese know that the US is the final arbiter of any conflict between the island and the mainland. They want us out of that picture so they can have a free reign in determining the conflict for themselves.
For years China's military establishment has accepted as a given a major war with the US in the next few decades, over Taiwan ostensibly, and global dominance overall in the 21st Century. They see this scenario as their version of the Spanish-American War, where we are now the old and decadent Spanish Empire, ripe to be plucked of its prize fruits, on the road to recognition as a new global super-power.
Now, China is not stupid. After all, Sun Tsu, the general who united ancient China, is the author of the greatest war manual, The Art of War. This book is studied for years by Chinese officers. Sun Tsu says to strike where the enemy is not, where the enemy is weakest. He also says to win a battle before an arrow is fired. He was the man who perfected the art of the forking attack, of feints, flanking maneuvers, of taking the high ground and fading into the terrain.
China needs to neutralize the US as a threat in its plan to conquer Taiwan. They are now testing nuclear subs with missiles capable of striking any target in the US. Still, they need to neutralize our conventional forces capability.
This is why for many years, you have seen significant Chinese support for Islamo-Fascism. China supplied Pakistan with nuclear technology to counter the Indian nuclear threat to China. It also supplied the Pakistanis with weapons supplies for the Taliban and al Qaeda. It supplied Iraq and Iran with ballistic missile technology. Most Iranian nuclear technology comes from China, through Pakistan.
Why would China do this? This is a classic Sun Tsu forking attack. They are using Islamo-fascism to blunt the US military capability, to sap its strength and readiness, its morale and support around the world. We see the threat of islamofascist terrorism as the real threat to US national security, and so are distracted from what is really going on. This is the real reason for 9-11: we had started becoming aware of the Chinese threat when our spy-plane was forced down in international airspace by a Chinese fighter collision. They couldn't allow this.
Now that we are distracted, the next hammer is dropping: the devaluating dollar crisis will push oil prices out of the range of affordability for our military to keep the Strategic Oil Reserve supplied. Our Navy will not be able to fuel a significant supply convoy program to Taiwan, while those supplies that are shipped out will fall prey to the new ultra-quiet Chinese diesel-electric attack subs. Our Air Force will quickly fall short on aircraft fuel for supply transport convoys to Taiwan. The US Navy won't be able to support constant rotating aircraft carrier groups in the South China Sea.
What can the US do to alleviate this threat? It is risky, and unorthodox, but I think is the ultimate defense: when the Chinese drop the currency bomb on the market, and oil prices go through the roof, the US should respond by selling the entire Strategic Oil Reserve off at these newly inflated prices. After all, we bought that oil at $1.50 per gallon. If we sell it off at $4.00 a gallon, that will take a lot more dollars off the market than we had previously put into it, it will push oil prices back down, and we can then use the sales profits to purchase oil at cheaper prices for our military needs.
Thinking about a draft is the least of our worries at the moment. If and when China decides to let the other shoe drop, it will be far too late for any late surge of Monday Morning Patriotism to fix anything. A battle to re-liberate Taiwan would be a lot more costly in lives then, as well, in addition to likely insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq in support of Chinese aggression.
And when you hear griping from the left about a draft, keep in mind the documented fact that the Chinese used the American left in supporting the North Vietnamese Communist forces during the Vietnam conflict, with the left-sponsored anti-war movement.
